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Following this we have provided some background information on Dignity, the UK funeral market and the typical customer purchase cycle. ![]() The main section of the reports begins with a look at Dignity’s historical performance. Within this, we will provide analysis around how the historical branch expansion strategy has been undertaken and its effects as well as analysis of how prices have changed historically. We will then look at what constitutes a funeral, whether through Dignity or another provider and show that Dignity operates at a pricing level that is far in excess of market averages. In here, we will also talk about why we believe this pricing premium cannot be justified to customers. Following this, we will detail why we believe Dignity will not be able to maintain this premium going forward, looking at the impact that price comparison websites will have on the funeral industry and examples of industries where this shift has played out previously. We will close with a section on valuation. The below table shows all the recent director transactions in Dignity shares. The starting balance for each director has been taken from “Director’s interest in shares” on page 60 of the 2016 Dignity Annual Report. Proceeding transactions compiled from RNS releases available on Dignity’s investor relations site. Management has been unloading large portions of their holdings in 2017 from the data we have seen. The CEO has reduced his shareholding from 0.37% to 0.17% None of the management team has a shareholding of more than 0.21% of the Company. We believe that Dignity is currently valued based upon a view that EPS will continue to grow through a predictable increase in revenue and profits. We do not believe that this will be the case going forward and set out our argument as follows. Between 2005 and 2016 (“the historical period”) the Company delivered: • Revenue growth from £143 to £314 million (7.4% cagr) • Operating profit growth from £42 to £98 million (8.1% cagr) • EPS growth from 22.4p to 119.8p (16.5% cagr) There have been two drivers of this historical performance: • a 53% increase in the number of branches (3.9% cagr); and • an 81% increase in pricing (5.6% cagr) The former is well publicised and reported on by Management. The latter, however, is not discussed publicly or reported on in annual reports. There are no KPIs reported relating to pricing. To fully understand historical performance, and form a view on future prospects, it is necessary to analyse how both branch expansion and pricing have played their respective parts in Dignity’s growth story. Our view on the historical contributions of these two drivers is that: • Branch expansion has functioned to keep the number of funerals performed steady, offsetting a +30% collapse in branch productivity • Dignity’s market share has been static at c.12% between 2005-16 • Branch productivity (funerals performed per location) has collapsed by more than 30% from 129/year in 2005 to 87/year at H1 2017. • Newly acquired locations typically provide around 150 funerals per year initially, offsetting customer losses elsewhere in the portfolio. • Pricing has been used to provide constant top-line growth • With customer numbers flat over the historical period, pricing has been used as a lever to provide revenue growth • Prices increased every year between 2005 and H1 2017 from £1,699 to £3,153 (cagr 5.6%) Effectively, Management have driven top line growth through large price increases across the existing portfolio, whilst offsetting decreasing customer numbers in the existing portfolio by acquiring new locations. The net result is that Dignity serves roughly the same number of customers each year but charges each of them a higher price. We believe this strategy will no longer be available to Management and that both branch expansion and price increases are now unsustainable. Branch expansion must logically end at some point. The ability to ever expand branches without cannibalising existing locations or falling foul of competition concerns is not guaranteed.
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